Taiwan: already inside, but not at the leading edge

TSMC, through ESMC in Dresden (joint venture with Bosch, Infineon, NXP, capital ~€10 bn, scheduled to start 2027 ), is already integrated into the European ecosystem. ESMC will fabricate at 28/22 nm and 16/12 nm — exactly matching the demand of the European automotive, industrial, and IoT segments. From a strategic standpoint, this is the right decision: it matches actual European industrial demand.

But leading-edge processes (3 nm, 2 nm) TSMC does not plan to fabricate in Europe. Those remain in Taiwan and Arizona. European AI, HPC, and high-performance server applications must continue to source 100 % of their leading-edge chips from outside the EU.

Realistic direction: consolidate the relationship at the level ESMC represents. Negotiate multi-year preferential allocation contracts for European customers, and contractual guarantees of continuity in case of geopolitical disruption in the Taiwan Strait. Do not build strategy on a second TSMC fab in Europe — that is not coming, regardless of how much subsidy is offered. CHIPS Act dollars to Arizona are larger than European subsidies and unlikely to be matched.

ESMC starting production in 2027 is the realistic European endpoint for Taiwan-derived advanced fabrication on European soil. Plan accordingly.